Resurgent Boeing 737 MAX could trigger jet surplus, expert cautions

Airlines battling to adapt to the establishing of the 737 MAX could confront a notably extraordinary issue when Boeing Co’s (BA.N) best-selling jet is cleared to re-enter service: a change to worries about aircraft oversupply, carriers have been cautioned.

The U.S. planemaker has kept on creating the jet since it was grounded in March after two fatal accidents and is relied upon to speed deliveries by 40%, to 70 units every month, when its factory doors reopen, in an offer to clear the excess.

Rob Morris, global head of consultancy at UK-based Ascend by Cirium, said the combination of any quick bounce back in deliveries, economic stresses and accumulation of market pressures dating back before the crashes could make it difficult to retain the jets.

“Next year is the challenge. When the dam breaks and the MAX starts to flow, there are going to be a lot of aircraft,” Morris told financiers at a Hong Kong briefing late on Monday.

“There could potentially be as many as 1,000 surplus aircraft next year.”

The figure depends on both a bounce back in MAX deliveries and a potential glut of second-hand airplanes flooding back onto the market after standing in for the MAX during the grounding.

The emergency has revived interest for older and less efficient jets, with aircrafts utilizing in excess of 800 planes that are over 15 years of age, contrasted with conditions four years prior, Morris told the Airline Economics Growth Frontiers conference on Tuesday.